During a war, food production collapses because tanks have a tendency to plow down crops. Here is a food ratio book from World War II in the United States where tanks were not plowing down fields. So even during WWII War, there were Ration Stamp Books issued by the United States government for citizens to purchase goods. Even Britain issued a ratio book, for in both cases, they needed to supply food to Europe which could not grow food. This is what will develop with Ukraine and Russia, combined with Ukrain you are looking at 30% of world grain production. Most of their exports go to Africa and Southeast Asia.
Perhaps now you will understand why our model has forecast focused on food both war post-2020, as well as a commodity boom into 2024. Even back in 2020, we warned that there would be a crisis in agriculture. The yearly array we posted back then showed a rally with a target in 2023.
A number of people have written in saying that others are copying our forecasts and pretend this is their personal analysis. There are always going to be people who want to pretend and take others’ work. The danger is that nobody can do this on a personal opinion, and even claiming they have looked at cycles back 500 years is the same BS you get from climate change analysts that stopped at 1850. Going back to the 16th century is by no means enough data to look forward. You are still dealing with the same monetary system and theories that are falling apart in front of our eyes.
You can go back to our 2011 World Economic Conference in Philadelphia where I stood up and warned the war cycle would turn up in 2014. What happened that year? Ukraine overthrew Yanucovof and that began the separatist movement in Donbas and this was the start of the Minsk Agreement. McCain and Graham traveled to Ukraine in 2016 to undermine that separatist movement simply because Donbas were Russians. The war we have today is directly the result of the behind-the-scenes proxy war against Russia that they began in 2014. Both McCain and Graham both opposed Trump in 2016, and it was John McCain who handed the fake dossier funded by the Clintons to claim Russia was interfering in the 2016 US election.
The model has beaten EVERYONE who pretends they foresaw this. My personal attempts at interpreting the arrays are by no means perfect. We provide the computer arrays so you can look at its forecasts yourself. In that manner, the model can continue to provide guidance long after I am gone.
The post The Model on War & Food Shortages first appeared on Armstrong Economics.
