The World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for India and the whole South Asian region on Wednesday, citing worsening supply bottlenecks and rising inflation risks caused by the Ukraine crisis. The international lender lowered its growth estimate for India, the region’s largest economy, to 8% from 8.7% for the current fiscal year to March 2023 and cut by a full percentage point the growth outlook for South Asia, excluding Afghanistan, to 6.6%. The World Bank said In India, household consumption will be constrained by the incomplete recovery of the labor market from the pandemic and inflationary pressures.
The World Bank raised its growth forecast for Pakistan, the region’s second-largest economy, for the current year ending in June, to 4.3% from 3.4% and kept next year’s growth outlook unchanged at 4%.
The World Bank slashed this year’s growth forecast for Maldives to 7.6% from 11%, citing its large imports of fossil fuels and a slump in tourism arrivals from Russia and Ukraine.
The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:
- NIKKEI 225 increased 328.51 points or 1.22% to 27,172.00
- Shanghai increased 38.82 points or 1.22% to 3,225.64
- Hang Seng increased 143.71 points or 0.67% to 21,518.08
- ASX 200 increased 44.40 points or 0.59% to 7,523.40
- Kospi increased 0.22 points or 0.01% to 2,716.71
- SENSEX closed
- Nifty50 closed
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
- AUDUSD decreased 0.0042 or -0.56% to 0.74097
- NZDUSD decreased 0.00217 or -0.32% to 0.67791
- USDJPY increased 0.452 or 0.36% to 125.925
- USDCNY increased 0.01693 or 0.27% to 6.39274
- Gold decreased 7.26 USD/t oz. or -0.37% to 1,970.46
- Silver decreased 0.282 USD/t. oz or -1.10% to 25.438
Some economic news from last night:
Foreign Bonds Buying increased from -1,666.1B to -1.4B
Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks increased from 543.3B to 1,675.4B
Export Price Index (YoY) (Mar) increased from 20.5% to 22.8%
Import Price Index (YoY) (Mar) increased from 30.7% to 35.5%
Interest Rate Decision (Apr) increased from 1.25% to 1.50%
MI Inflation Expectations increased from 4.9% to 5.2%
Employment Change (Mar) decreased from 77.4K to 17.9K
Full Employment Change (Mar) decreased from 121.9K to 20.5K
Participation Rate (Mar) remain the same at 66.4%
Unemployment Rate (Mar) remain the same at 4.0%
Business NZ PMI (Mar) increased from 53.6 to 53.8
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 2.3% to 0.4%
GDP (YoY) (Q1) decreased from 6.1% to 3.4%
Some economic news from today
FDI (Mar) decreased from 37.90% to 25.60%
The UK could send tens of thousands of asylum seekers to the East African country of Rwanda, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday, aiming to break people-smuggling networks and stem the flow of migrants across the Channel. Concerns over immigration were a big factor in the 2016 Brexit vote, and Johnson has been under pressure to deliver on his promise to “take back control” of Britain’s borders. But his plan drew swift criticism from opponents of his Conservative Party and from charities. Anyone who has arrived in Britain illegally since Jan. 1 could now be relocated to Rwanda, which would disrupt the business model of people-smuggling gangs, the prime minister said.
The European Central Bank confirmed plans on Thursday to end its hallmark stimulus scheme in the third quarter, worried that high inflation could become entrenched, even as the war in Ukraine left the outlook exceptionally uncertain. The ECB has been unwinding support at a glacial pace, far slower than its peers, worried that growth could quickly crumble as the war, sky-high energy prices and the risk of losing access to Russian gas batter an already fragile economy.
The major Europe stock markets had a green day:
- CAC 40 increased 47.21 points or 0.72% to 6,589.35
- FTSE 100 increased 35.58 points or 0.47% to 7,616.38
- DAX 30 increased 87.41 points or 0.62% to 14,163.85
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
- EURUSD decreased 0.0077 or -0.71% to 1.08170
- GBPUSD decreased 0.00617 or -0.47% to 1.30578
- USDCHF increased 0.00903 or 0.97% to 0.94286
Some economic news from Europe today:
Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) decreased from 51.93 to 47.75
German WPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 1.7% to 6.9%
German WPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 16.6% to 22.6%
PPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.4% to 0.8%
PPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 5.8% to 6.1%
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) decreased from 51.5 to 46.4
Italy Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) decreased from 42.91 to 42.43
France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) decreased from 46.63 to 44.22
Deposit Facility Rate (Apr) remain the same at -0.50%
ECB Marginal Lending Facility remain the same at 0.25%
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) remain the same at 0.00%
Consumer spending reached a high in March, according to new released CPI data. Retail sales in the US rose 0.5% from the month prior and 6.9% from last year. Energy unsurprisingly saw the largest spike after increasing 8.9% and gas rising 19.3%. The energy sector is now up 37% over the past year.
US jobless claims advanced 185,000 for the week ending on April 9, marking a 18,000 increase from the week prior. Analysts expected a rate of 172,000. Continuing claims (data collected from the week prior) declined by 48,000 to 1.475 million.
US Market Closings:
- Dow declined 113.36 points or -0.33% to 34,451.23
- S&P 500 declined 54 points or 1.21% to 4,392.59
- Nasdaq declined 292.51 points or -2.14% to 13,351.08
- Russell 2000 declined 20.12 points or -0.09% to 2,004.98
Canada Market Closings:
- TSX Composite advanced 17.68 points or 0.08% to 21,855.7
- TSX 60 advanced 1.59 points or 0.12% to 1,320.93
Brazil Market Closing:
- Bovespa declined 600.35 points or -0.51% to 116,181.61
The oil markets had a green day today:
- Crude Oil increased 0.97 USD/BBL or 0.93% to 105.220
- Brent increased 1.13 USD/BBL or 1.04% to 109.91
- Natural gas increased 0.216 USD/MMBtu or 3.09% to 7.2130
- Gasoline increased 0.0352 USD/GAL or 1.07% to 3.3261
- Heating oil increased 0.156 USD/GAL or 4.20% to 3.8744
The above data was collected around 13:00 EST on Thursday
- Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (4.20%) and Natural Gas (3.09%), Palm Oil(2.46%), Rubber (3.12%)
- Top commodity losers: Cotton(-1.25%), Bitumen (-3.64%), Wheat (-1.16%) and Oat (-3.55%)
The above data was collected around 13:07 EST on Thursday.
Japan 0.253%(+1.5bp), US 2’s 2.45% (+0.081%), US 10’s 2.8140% (+11.15bps); US 30’s 2.91% (+0.101%), Bunds 0.842% (+6.7bp), France 1.333% (+6.1bp), Italy 2.506% (+12.8bp), Turkey 22.74% (+0bp), Greece 2.914% (+6bp), Portugal 1.862% (+7.8bp); Spain 1.808% (+9.2bp) and UK Gilts 1.891% (+8.6bp).
The post Market Talk – April 14, 2022 first appeared on Armstrong Economics.